Risk & Resilience Management of Complex Socio-Technical Systems
OPERATIONS and SUPPLY CHAIN
With a pressure for more sustainable and circular operations models, firms need to manage supply chain risks and resilience (SCRM&R) while simultaneously meeting ever increasing challenging demands from their customers. Besides, the digital transformation of manufacturing and service operations represents a powerful mean for effective SCRM&R but also the source of new uncertainties and threats that will ultimately re-shape the risk profile of future supply chains.
Due to the proliferation of outsourcing and global trade, supply chains have become more complex, and likewise, vulnerable to uncertainties, disruptions and business loss, as well as environmental and social damages.
On-going Projects
Past Projects
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Investment risk analysis of modular solutions for new nuclear power plants (NPP)
Institutional and Private Research Partners
KTH
JRC
umicore
SAIPEM
WMG
Universidade Nova de Lisboa
NISSAN
JAGUAR
INAIL
Bosch Rexroth
Westinghouse
Fondazione Di Vittorio
International Atomic Energy Agency
Hewlett-Packard
FLOWSERVE
CAMPARI
Maire Tecnimont
Alcatel-Lucent
CLN Group, Wheels division
SAME Tractors
Selected Publications
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Lapko Y, Trucco P., Nuur C., “The business perspective on materials criticality: evidence from manufacturers”, Resources Policy, Vol. 50, 2016, pp. 93-107.
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Sarker S., Engwall M., Trucco P., Feldmann A., “Internal Visibility of External Supplier Risks and the Dynamics of Risk Management Silos”, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 63, Issue: 4, 2016, pp. 1-11. DOI: 10.1109/TEM.2016.2596144
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Birkie S., Trucco P., “Understanding dynamism and complexity factors in engineer-to-order and their influence on lean implementation strategy”, Production Planning & Control. Vol. 27, N. 5, 2016, pp. 345-359.
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Birkie S., Trucco P., Kaulio M., "Disentangling core functions of Operational Resilience: A critical review of extant literature", Int. Journal of Supply Chain and Operations Resilience. Vol. 1. N. 1, 2014, pp. 76-103.
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Arena M., Azzone G., Cagno E., Silvestri A., Trucco P., "A model for operationalizing ERM in project-based operations through dynamic capabilities", International Journal of Energy Sector Management. Vol. 8, No. 2, 2014, pp. 178-197.
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Arena M., Azzone G., Cagno E., Ferretti G., Prunotto E., Silvestri A., Trucco P., "Integrated Risk Management through dynamic capabilities within project-based organizations - the Company Dynamic Response Map" Risk Management Vol. 15, 2013, pp. 50-77. doi:10.1057/rm.2012.12.
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Cagno E., Trucco P., Di Giulio A., “An Algorithm for the Implementation of Safety Improvement Programs”, Safety Science, Vol 37, N. 1, pp. 59-75, 2001.
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Trucco P., Petrenj B., Birkie S. E., “Assessing supply chain resilience upon Critical Infrastructure disruptions: a multilevel simulation modelling approach”, in Khojasteh, Y. (ed.), Supply Chain Risk Management: Advanced Tools, Models and Developments, Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018.
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Trucco P., Masi D., "Continuous monitoring of at-risk behaviours: A risk-based statistical control method", Safety and Reliability: Methodology and Applications, ESREL 2014, Edited by Tomasz Nowakowski, Marek Młyńczak, Anna Jodejko-Pietruczuk & Sylwia Werbińska-Wojciechowska, CRC Press, 2014, pp. 1311–1318, ISBN: 978-1-138-02681-0, eBook ISBN: 978-1-315-73697-6, DOI: 10.1201/b17399-181.
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Trucco P. and Ward D., "A Clustering approach to the Operational Resilience analysis of Key Resource Supply Chains (KRSC): the case of Fast Moving Consumer Goods", IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, Singapore (Singapore), 6th-9th December, 2011.
Investigating the effectiveness of resilience capabilities in complex supply chains
Resilience capabilities formed from routine practices enable recovery of performance affected by disruption in supply chains. Their effectiveness is, however, subject to the severity of the disruption scenario. Furthermore, disruptions happening at one point could lead to severe consequences rippling away from the initial trigger point, and this has also to do with collaboration and visibility along a supply chain network that can have influence on the performance of a firm involved.
This basic research project aims at performing an initial investigation on the combined effect of supply chain complexity and of the positioning of the event trigger on the effectiveness of resilience practices for recovering performance after disruption.
The study is grounded on a systematic and continuous collection of SC disruption events applying the Critical Incident Technique (CIT). So far, the dataset contains more than 110 cases, covering different geographical regions and sectors.
Blood Supply Chain resilience: systematic comparison of agile and lean operations models
The BSC is a key asset for the quality and continuity of healthcare service delivery, and thus on citizens’ safety and wellbeing. The major complexity factors affecting the BSC’s performance are the high variability and uncertainties on both patient and donor sides. Moreover, the BSC is asked to cope with emergencies that suddenly may occur in case of unexpected events, further increasing operational complexity.
Taking inspiration from the most recent literature demonstrating the existence of synergies between lean practices and resilience capabilities, this research aims at systematically assessing the resilience characteristics of agile and lean configurations of the BSC. Discrete-event simulation is used to compare the performance of the two SC strategies, under normal and crisis conditions.
The study is based on real data of the Blood Supply Chain and system in Lombardy Region (10M citizens, Italy)
Managing Supply Chain risks of Critical Raw Materials in green energy supply chains: towards secure and sustainable operations models
Exponential increase of the world population and economic growth drives increasing energy and material resources consumption and creates great pressure on their supply. Nowadays, there are concerns about the availability of some raw materials, which play an important role in the deployment of present and emerging technologies. Such materials, labelled as “critical” (critical raw materials – CRM) (NRC 2008; European Commission 2010) are characterized by high probability of supply constraints and high impact of supply destruction.
Shortage of these materials can become a bottleneck and a threat for the long term development of many industrial sectors. In particular, it is relevant for green energy technologies that employ multiple critical materials (e.g. indium, gallium, tellurium in PV, rare earth elements in wind turbines.
Set against this background, the general objectives of the project are the following:
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Analyze supply chain dynamics of materials criticality: particularities of handling the same critical materials through different stages along the forward and reverse supply chains (e.g. purchasing, manufacturing, recycling), cross-tier relations, ripple effect of risk factors, awareness of risk factors and ability to take actions; interconnections and interdependencies between product and material markets.
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Analyze company and industry specific contingency factors.
Analyze product and material perspectives on the sustainable use of materials in terms of uncertainty factors and their priorities for different supply chain positions and the system in the whole - both in forward and reverse supply chain.
Investigating synergies and trade-offs between lean and OHS interventions and management practices
The existing studies on the complex relationship between OHS and productivity lead to contradictory results. On one sides there are evidences of negative influences or trade-offs and on the other mechanisms reinforcing a positive influence have been discovered and theoretically justified.
Productivity is often closer to the core business of firms and therefore the identification of positive effects of safety practices on productivity outcomes, either direct or indirect, is a strong and effective argument for the promotion of safety interventions.
The present research is developing and testing the ProSA Framework, which allows a systematic evaluation of the synergies between Productivity and OHS. The framework comprises a stepwise procedure that can guide a cross-functional team in the analysis and management of the synergies between Productivity and OHS when designing or evaluating specific interventions or more comprehensive improvement programs.
So far, the ProSA Framework has been validated and refined through an independent testing, and the independent testing team highlighted several benefits from the introduction of ProSA in their decision making process.
IMPAcT-RLS: Indagine sui modelli partecipativi aziendali e territoriali per la salute e la sicurezza del posto di lavoro
(Maturity models for participatory OHS management)
La presente ricerca si pone l’obiettivo di offrire un quadro completo, a livello nazionale, sul ruolo del Rappresentante dei Lavoratori per la Sicurezza (RLS), nelle sue diverse forme (rappresentante aziendale - RLS, territoriale – RLST - e di sito produttivo - RLSSP), nell’ambito dei sistemi di valutazione, prevenzione e gestione dei rischi nelle organizzazioni.
Lo studio parte dalla consolidata evidenza nella letteratura nazionale e internazionale dell’impatto significativo che un coinvolgimento consapevole dei RLS nella gestione dei rischi e un approccio cooperativo nei sistemi di prevenzione ha nel garantire una tutela più efficace della salute e sicurezza dei lavoratori, ma anche dal riconoscimento che i RLS incontrano diverse criticità nello svolgere il loro ruolo.
Solo pochi studi, in ambito internazionale, hanno analizzato il ruolo dei RLS nello scenario più ampio dei sistemi di prevenzione utilizzando un questionario standardizzato con l’obiettivo di raggiungere un campione rappresentativo della popolazione di riferimento. In Italia il primo studio orientato ad ottenere un quadro ampio sul ruolo dei RLS è stato condotto nell’ambito del programma INSULA, condotto nel 2014 da INAIL, rivolgendosi a tutti i soggetti della prevenzione.
A partire da questo quadro di riferimento il presente studio si è posto l’obiettivo di ampliare l’indagine ad un campione rappresentativo di tutta la popolazione di RLS presente sul territorio nazionale e di approfondirlo rispetto agli aspetti indagati, con particolare riferimento alle relazioni, le sinergie e le criticità esistenti tra il sistema di rappresentanza e il sistema di gestione della salute e sicurezza sul lavoro (SGSSL).
Digital Transformation in EPC Supply Chain
In this ongoing project, we are trying to understand how to manage the impact of the digital revolution on the EPC sector, to build a digital frontier that allows qualifying the EPC companies to manage the transition phase, and to also survive in the expected future digital eco-system.
The challenge of managing the digital transformation processes escalates when it comes to the EPC sector (engineering, procurement, and construction). The EPC companies usually operate globally to realise complex capital projects, they face fierce market challenges with high levels of uncertainty. When compared with other sectors (e.g. telecommunications or manufacturing), the EPC sector is seen as the least innovative, therefore, the least digitalised sector (WEF, 2015; McKinsey, 2015). Therefore, our research on the EPC sector digital transformation is centred on three main dimensions:
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Building Digitalisation Capabilities for EPC sector stakeholders (EPC companies, large contractors, SME suppliers)
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Building Transformation Capabilities for EPC sector stakeholders
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Developing Organisational Ambidexterity in EPC companies
This project is conducted in close collaboration with leading industrial partners in the Oil&Gas, Nuclear, Energy, Defence and Aerospace, Telecom, Transport Infrastructure sectors.
Modularisation as a System’s Life-Cycle Management Strategy
This project transforms the traditional notion of modularisation in Projects-based organisations; from a concept well-addressed in the manufacturing phases (as in plant or product modularisation), to a philosophy for managing the entire system’s life-cycle.
Modularisation is usually employed to address the complexity in systems and products. This project explores how modularisation strategies could be used to counteract a system’s complexity, and the operational uncertainty in organisations that depend on projects as their main operating model.
We put forward a conceptualisation and a new perspective of modularisation that addresses different dimensions: operational, technological, physical, and organisational modularisation. These dimensions will also be reflected on the different phases of the project environment, as well as on the organisational setups and processes.
The main aim of the project is to enhance the business and the project agility, in face of a highly complex context (uncertainty and dynamism). This project is conducted in close collaboration with a leading industrial partner in the Oil&Gas EPC sector.
Modelling and assessing the dependability of Key Resource Supply Chains on Critical Infrastructure systems and services
Supply chain risk management (SCRM) approaches suggest that actors in a supply chain network should consider different risk scenarios to address and mitigate supply chain risks in a better way. Overall performance of a supply chain could be severely affected by disruptions that are triggered by failures or service disruptions in the critical infrastructure (CI) systems that the supply chain relies on. Interdependencies among the CI systems and supply chains, particularly the so-called Key Resources Supply Chains (KRSC) such as food, worsen the effects as disruption and consequences propagate in the network. In order to understand such interdependencies and enhance SCRM approaches with a more holistic view, this research introduced a multilevel modelling approach. The economic loss impact of disruptions in CI systems and the potential effectiveness of different strategies to improve resilience in KRSC were modelled and assessed.
A combination of Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics was used at the different levels of the simulation model. The proposed approach has been demonstrated with an application case addressing the vulnerability and resilience analysis of a fast moving consumer goods supply chain against disruptions in underlying CI systems. Results of the multilevel simulation offered relevant insights toward a better understanding of the strength and dynamics of the interdependence between KRSC and CI, and consequently on resilience improvement efforts.
Results help supply chain managers to prioritise resilience strategies, according to their expected benefits, when making decisions on the amount and location of resilience capabilities within a supply chain. The results strongly support the implementation of collaborative and coordinated resilience strategies among supply chain actors to direct efforts where they can be most effective.
Company Dynamic Response Map - Integrated Risk Management through dynamic capabilities within project-based organizations
The study aimed at proposing a new risk management instrument for project based organizations – the Company Dynamic Response Map (CDRM) –and testing its ability to better respond to risk and opportunities. The CDRM is based on the concept of dynamic capabilities, as a mean through which companies can manage their ability to dynamically fit with the evolutions of the business context. Different risk response strategies were conceptualized as a combination of a given set of capabilities that could be used to manage risks at different organizational levels more effectively.
The empirical basis was provided by a leading project-based organization competing in the Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) industry, where the CDRM has been applied to analyse the company's current Risk Management (RM) systems, underlining strengths and weaknesses. Based on the data analysis, generalised operational elements were also identified that project-based organisations should consider to manage both risks and opportunities in a holistic and integrated way.
